Posted by: Andy | March 8, 2008

No, Michigan & Florida don’t have to matter

I’ve seen a lot of BS in the new is the last week about how Michigan & Florida *have* to matter for the Democratic primaries for any number of stupid reasons.

I’ve seen a few reasons for this, but the stupidest one I’ve seen yet is mentioned in a number of places, one of the being CNN, is that without those two states, neither candidate can hit the 2024/25 delegate minimum that is needed to win the nomination.

Simple facts: That number is based on including the Florida & Michigan delegates. Which the party already agreed it would not do. Yet it never adjusted the 2024/25 number??  Monkey Fucking Seahorse, people. When you base a number off a TOTAL, and then you CHANGE the TOTAL, you should probably change any numbers that are directly based off that total too….

Answer:

2024 is based off of (at least I think it is…) 50% of the total delegate count, which is 4048 (according to wiki – yes, it IS still useful).

4048-157(Mich)-210(Fl) = 3681

3681/2 = 1841.

There are at least 500 delegates left up for grabs (not counting supers), making that magical 1841 number pretty reachable by either candidate.

So there’s your simple answer. There must be some problem with that, since I haven’t seen it suggested yet. So what’s the problem?

Random notes:

*Clinton only got 56% percent of the vote in Michigan, a state where Obama’s name wasn’t even on the ballot.
*In Floria, she got 50% & he got 33%, with Edwards taking 14%. As far as I know, none of them campaigned there (??). Does she really want to risk a campaign there against Obama? After how much he closed the distance in Texas & Ohio (yes yes I know, he lost, but he lost by less than he would have before the campaigning started), does she really want to risk that?

PS: Is Mike Gravel dead? If not, why the fuck hasn’t he withdrawn from the race yet??

PPS: He kind of looks dead to me. C’mon, tell me that doesn’t look like coffin-face! 😉

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Responses

  1. That’s not Coffin-face, silly! That’s the Amazing Denture Dude.

  2. i’m glad someone out there’s a thinker! damn, thanks for doing the correct math for me…i couldn’t figure out what they were all talking about!


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